I have been hearing a lot of Bitcoin "deflationary spiral" criticism. Here is what I think about it
I have been seeing a lot of businesses/retailers offering bitcoin customers a 10-20% discount. The way I see it, if this trend continues, people will be more likely to buy Bitcoins (with their local currency) and then spend them to get a discount. With very low transaction fees, this creates an incentive to buy bitcoins with whatever currency they use and use them almost immediately. Similar to why many people use credit cards even if they have the money in the bank. The more they spend, the more points/air miles the get. This method is also seen with gift cards- People pay for them ahead of time and spend them later. If deflation continues, retailers would be more than willing to give discount to their bitcoin paying customers. I don't see deflation being a problem for bitcoins- People are going to spend money regardless, especially if they are getting a discount.
BitMEX Research: Bitcoin Economics – Deflationary Debt Spiral (Part 3) - Bitcoin is resilient against some traditional disadvantages of deflation. Bitcoin has weaknesses, often overlooked by critics, which make the controversial supply cap necessary. (New PDF Report)
Typically the term is used for the whole economy but the same mechanism might apply to the bitcoin market: 1) Bitcoin exchange rate is rising 2) Bitcoin owners expect it to rise further so defer trading it 3) Shortage of bitcoins causes the exchange rate to rise 4) Rinse and repeat Is this what is causing bitcoin's meteoric rise? Edit: One more question. A traditional deflationary spiral goes hand in hand with ever falling production rates. Would the same be happening now to the (black) markets that only trade in bitcoin?
Krugman, trolls: to support your claim of deflation being bad in the context of bitcoin, please explain how we will see deflationary spirals like the Great Depression or 90s Japan if there is no bitcoin-denominated debt/wages/prices? If you don't, then stop using it as a handwaving argument plz thx.
Beyond using "deflation" as a simple boogeyman, I've never heard someone explain why this would be a systemically catastrophic as it has been in well known cases (US Great Depression, Japan's Lost Decade, etc.). In those well-known cases the main problem, basically, was the deflationary spiral caused by the real value of the debt increasing, thus exacerbating the vicious cycle of lower output leading to lower wages, lower investment, lower spending, lower output, etc. However, how does this apply to Bitcoin?
How much debt is there denominated in bitcoins? Almost none.
How many people have their wages denominated in bitcoin (not just paid in bitcoin, but set in bitcoin)? Almost none, and even if some do, it's probably readjusted to the dollar exchange rate every month or two or three.
How many people set prices for their products in bitcoins? Besides the Bitcoin Trezor pre-order experiment, almost none, unless it's a trivial amount (for example, the price of embedding a hash of a document in the blockchain at www.proofofexistence.com) or temporary (for example, a price for a drink special at happy hour, as was the case in Miami yesterday).
"That describes the current state of the 'Bitcoin economy'", the skeptic/critic might say, "what about the future? One day there might be a lot of bitcoin-denominated debt, what then when those people can't pay it back when the value of the currency deflates?" It's not that simple; the world is dynamic so we can't just imagine that suddenly people have bitcoin-denominated debt-- they actually have to take it on. Will they? As our esteemed sage says in page 410 of his book Economics (Krugman, Wells, 2006), there's a difference between expected and unexpected deflation. He mentions it in the context of a liquidity trap and the inability of monetary policy to stimulate the economy due to the fact that nominal interest rates are zero bound (they can't go below zero). However, I'll use the distinction in the context of bitcoin to argue that we might never see a significant amount of lending denominated in bitcoin because agents expect deflation. Thus in only the most extreme cases, where a borrower knows that the investment they seek to finance is guaranteed to have a healthy ROI in bitcoin, will that borrower take out a loan in bitcoin at a >0% rate. Now, perhaps these skeptics/critics might say they actually want a world with high amounts of debt, not low-debt as I've described. Fine, I'll concede that mass adoption of bitcoin as a currency might reduce the level of debt in society. (Though, I'll be happy to take that to the masses and see which side of the more-debt/less-debt argument most people fall under.) But what I don't think they can casually say is that bitcoin adoption will lead to deflationary spirals. I'm all ears, though, if you have a more drawn out argument. tl;dr Deflation was bad in during the Great Depression and Japan in the 1990's mainly because it was unexpected and, most importantly, debt was denominated in dollars and yen (respectively) and created a deflationary spiral. I reject the handwaving argument that "bitcoin is bad because it's deflationary", if critics/skeptics don't acknowledge that we are unlikely to see much if any bitcoin-denominated debt (nor bitcoin-denominated wages/prices.)
Bitcoin is in a deflationary spiral and its bad for long term
In lights of the recent events of the high Bitcoin/USD exchange rates and the absurdly high numbers in case of of trading volumes, mainstream media is picking up on Bitcoin and the bag holders obviously love it. Then earlier today a filthy statist wrote a blog post about price manipulations on Bitfinex and possibly GDAX. Which got me interested in the actual numbers of Bitcoin traded. It took me a bit longer than expected to get the raw number of Bitcoins traded per day because the main Bitcoin statistics websites only list the volume in US-Dollar. What I found was very surprising. The actual number of traded Bitcoins seems to be drastically lower than in the end of 2016 – even a magnitude lower. While the last few weeks were pretty stable, 2016 was a trading fest in terms of raw Bitcoins moved. It seems to be correlated with the price, because just as Bitcoin broke through the $1,000 mark the volume collapsed. https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?c=e&r=week&t=a https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/price/2y/USD?c=e&r=week&t=l It means we have a deflationary spiral. As the prices of goods and services decrease relative to bitcoin. IE 1 BTC =1 widget a year ago, .5 BTC =1 widget today, people tend to start hoarding. Why cash out for a Ford Focus today when I can get a Ferrari tomorrow? Once that happens it starts this self-fulfilling prophecy, and this is what you get. An economy whose "currency" is completely detached from the underlying economy. The problem is in this ecosystem is that you have this inflationary period. New coins are constantly coming into creation, those coins have to be sold since mining is a zero sum endeavour, so that is acting against the price. However right now the demand is outpacing the supply, because like I said above, everyone is hoarding. As price increases the quantities demanded start to decrease, in this case the quantity decrease is more of a restriction on how much disposable income bitcoiners can throw at it. Eventually bitcoiners will be priced out from purchasing all but the smallest fractions of coins, but the supply will continue to increase consistently. Eventually this will push the price down and people will start selling to lock in gains. Now you have too much supply and not enough demand, so down we go. Money on the gold standard did this exact same boom/doom pattern. This is where the huge crash will come into play. And all of this assumes the number is not just some bullshit made up number. I'm not confident that the price is not manipulated by exchanges et al. So we could have a price that is total fucking bullshit. I do find it rather hilarious for bitcoiners to hand wave off deflation because "people don't do that, they have to eat", and yet can not see the bitter irony starring right back at them. Thoughts, comments? Feel free to tell me why I'm wrong.
Why won't a deflationary spiral occur with Bitcoins?
I'm aware of this argument, but it's not very persuasive. They argue that because the supply of Bitcoins isn't fixed, that it can't occur. However the supply of gold isn't fixed either, people are constantly mining gold, and the more valuable it becomes, the more they'll mine it - just like Bitcoins. Bitcoins and gold are very similar, and I suspect equally vulnerable to hoarding. Even if a deflationary spiral doesn't occur while Bitcoins can still be mined, surely it will occur once they can't be mined any more in 2140? Won't the value appreciate as more and more Bitcoins are lost, increasing the value of those that remain? In short: Why is Bitcoin's specific mechanism of adding new Bitcoins to the available pool the right mechanism?
BitMEX Research: Bitcoin Economics Deflationary Debt Spiral (Part 3) - Bitcoin is resilient against some traditional disadvantages of deflation. Bitcoin has weaknesses, often overlooked by critics, which make the controversial supply cap necessary. (New PDF Report)
Bitcoin hitting $10 trillion market cap is “easily achievable”
Raoul Pal — chief executive of Real Vision and a former Goldman Sachs executive — recently sat down with one of Bitcoin’s earliest public bulls, Max Keiser, to talk about the outlook for cryptocurrencies. Responding to an inquiry from Keiser regarding Bitcoin’s potential to begin to rival gold, which has approximately a $9 trillion market capitalization. “If it becomes an ecosystem, and we believe it will be and it will take the whole ecosystem with it as well, then yes, I think a $10 trillion number is easily achievable within that process.” https://preview.redd.it/rge9cx3go5z41.png?width=824&format=png&auto=webp&s=17d5beef2015d7a67852ee4b3d036aa1371227e3 A $10 trillion market capitalization corresponds with more than $500,000 per coin.
The timelines are accelerating
While Pal held the belief that Bitcoin could skyrocket to trillions long before the COVID-19 outbreak, the ongoing macroeconomic conditions are increasing the chances crypto performs well, he has suggested. Per previous reports from CryptoSlate, he postulated in the April edition of his research newsletter “Global Macro Investor” that due to the economic and monetary fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak, there’s a genuine risk “of the failure of our very system of money” or at least a collapse of the “current financial architecture.” Pal has specifically cited a potential deflationary spiral caused by the lack of spending, which he believes will cause the value of the U.S. dollar to shoot up while individuals, corporations, and governments will have to default on their record levels of debt.
1)It is possible to change the code through a miner vote or a fork and change the total supply or anything. DASH did it : they reduced the total supply from 84M to 18.9M a few years ago. They could also increase it to 999 Trillions if they wanted to so that millions of DASH are mined every week. 2)You can also fork bitcoin anytime , start over from 0 and claim it's the real bitcoin. (BCH , BSV , BTG , LTC , BCD etc) 3)Why would you pay $10,000 for a digital collectible unit called BTC when you can use BCH or TRX or LTC .. you name it. They work just as fine and cost less. There is no rarity like in gold. 4)Think of any amount you hold in ethereum as a gift card to use smart contracts on the ETH blockchain. Ridiculous. You’d rather hold a wal mart gift card or even simply cash. 5)Private keys may be bruteforced as we speak. Quintillions entries a second. When they’ll have enough bitcoins under control , they could move them all at once instantly.(At least 45,000 ETH have been stolen this way for now through ethereum bandit)SHA 256 is too old , bitcoin is 10 years old , it is not secure enough , quantum computing could potentially break it. 6)And that’s if people don’t find a way to create an infinite amount of coins to sell on exchanges.. it happened with monero , stellar , bitcoin , zcash , zcoin , eos , etc.. proofs : “Bitcoin , Coindesk : “The Latest Bitcoin Bug Was So Bad, Developers Kept Its Full Details a Secret”an attacker could have actually used it to create new Bitcoin — above the 21 million hard-cap of coin creation — thereby inflating the supply and devaluing current bitcoins.” Stellar : “Stellar Inflation: Glitch Leads to 2.25 Billion Extra XLM Printed” Monero : “A bug in the Monero (XMR) wallet software that could enable fake deposits to exchanges has been recently brought to public attention through a Medium post” Zcoin : Forged coins were created, but not exceeding 1% of the circulating supply. We will release further details on exact numbers when Sigma is released. EOS : “Hackers Forge Billion EOS Coins to Steal Real Crypto From DEX “ Zcash : “Zcash Team Reveals It Fixed a Catastrophic Coin Counterfeiting Bug” etc.. 7)Segwit , and especially Lightning network is a very complex technology and it will inevitably have flaws , bugs , it will be exploited and people will lose money. That alone can cause bitcoin to drop very low levels. 8)Then miners may be losing millions so they will stop mining , blocks may be so slow , almost no transaction will come though , and bitcoin may not have enough time to reach the next difficulty adjustement. This is reffered to as a death spiral. Then every crypto even those with no mining involved may crash hard. 9)Many crypto wallets are unsafe and have already caused people to lose all their investment , including the infamous “parity wallet”. 10)It is NOT trustless. you have to trust the wallet you’re using is not just generating an address controlled by the developper , you have to trust the node the wallet connects to is an honest node , you have to trust a Rogue state or organization with enough computing power will not 51% attack the network. etc.. 11)Bitcoin is NOT deflationary. Bitcoins are created every blocks (roughly every 10 minutes) and you wil be dead by the time we reach the 21 million current hard cap. 12)Bitcoin price may artificially be inflated by Tether. 13)It’s an energy waste , an environmental catastrophy. 14)The only usecases are money laundering , tax evasion , gambling , buying on the dark net , evading sanctions and speculation. 15)Governments will ban it if it gets too big , and they have a big incentive to do so , not only for the obscure usecases but also because it threatens the stability of sovereign currencies. Trump could kill bitcoin with one tweet , force fiat exchanges to cease activity. 16)Most cryptos are scams , the rest are just crazy speculative casino investments. 17)It is pyramidal : early adopters intend to profit massively while last comers get crushed. That's not how money works. The overwhelming majority of crypto holders are buying it because they think they will be able to sell it to a higher price later. Money is supposed to be rather stable. That's why the best cryptocurrencies are USDT USDC etc.. 18)The very few stores accepting bitcoin always have the real price in the local currency , not in bitcoin. And prices like 0.00456329 BTC are ridiculous ! 19)About famous brokers listing bitcoin : they have to meet the demand in order to make money , it doesn't mean they approve it , some even short it (see interactive broker's CEO opinion on bitcoin) 20)People say cash is backed by nothing and losing value slowly , and yes it is very flawed , but there is a whole nation behind it , it's accepted everywhere , you can buy more things with it. 21)Everybody in crypto thinks that there will be a new bullrun and that then , they will sell. But because everybody thinks it will happen , it might not happen. The truth is past performance doesn’t indicate future performance and it is absolutely not guaranteed that there will ever be another bullrun. The markets are unpredictable. 22)Also BTC went from about $0.003 to the price it is today , so don’t think it’s cheap now. 23)There is no recourse if you’re scammed/hacked/made a mistake in the address etc. No chargebacks. But it might be possible to do a rollback (blockchain reorganization) to reverse some transactions. BSV did it. 24)In case of a financial crisis , the speculative assets would crash the most and bitcoin is far from being a non speculative safe heaven ; and governments might ban it to prevent fiat inflation to worsen. 25) Having to write down the private key somewhere or memorize it is a security flaw ! It’s insane to think a system like this will gain mass adoption. 26) The argument saying governments can not ban it because it is decentralized (like they banned drugs) doesn’t work for cryptos. First , drugs are much harder to find and much more expensive and unsafe because of the ban , and people are willing to take the risk because they like it. But if crypto is banned , value will drop too much , and if you can’t sell it for fiat without risking jail , goodluck to find a buyer. Fiat exchanges could close. Banks could terminate every crypto related bank account. And maybe then the mining death spiral would happen and kill all cryptos. 27) Crypto doesn’t exist. It’s like buying air. It’s just virtual collectibles generated by a code. Faguzzi, fugazzi, it’s a whazzie, it’s a whoozie.. it’s a.. fairy dust. It doesn’t exist. It’s never landed. It’s no matter, it’s not on the elemental chart. It… it’s not fucking real! 28) Most brilliant guys have come out and said Bitcoin was a scam or worthless. Including Bill Gates , Warren Buffet , The Wolf Of Wall Street… 29) Inflation is necessary for POW , BTC code will have to be changed to bypass the 21M cap or mining will die ! If BTC code is not changed to allow for miners to be paid reasonably , they will cease mining when the bitcoin block reward gets too low.Even monero understood it ,the code will have to be changed to allow for an infinite bitcoin supply (devaluating all current bitcoins) or the hash will decrease and the security of bitcoin will decrease dramatically and be 51% attacked 30) Don’t mix up blockchain and cryptos. Even blockchain is overrated. But when you hear this or that company is going blockchain , it doesn’t mean they support cryptocurrencies. 31) Craig Wright had a bitcoin mining company with Dave Kleinman (he died) and on january 1 2020 he claims he will be able to access the 1.1M BTC/BCH/BTG from the mining trust. He may or may not dump them on the market , he also said BTC had a fatal flaw and that by 2019 there will be no more BTC. 32) Hacks in cryptos are very common and usually massive. Billions of dollars in crypto have been stolen in the last 6 years. In may 2019 Binance was hacked and lost 7,000 BTC (and it’s far from being the biggest crypto hack). 33) Bitcoin was first. It's an ancient technology. Newer blockchains have privacy, smart contracts, distributed apps and more.Bitcoin is our future? Was the Model T the future of the automobile? (John Mc Afee) 34) IOTA investiguating stolen funds on mainnet. IOTA shuts down the whole network to deal with trinity wallet attack. 35) Compared to bitcoin other cryptos work just as fine and don't waste so much energy. 36 ) Everytime miners disagree on the updates it will create another version of bitcoin : problem of governance and legitimacy. 37) Cryptos are only legitimate if they act as a credit for a redeemable asset like USDT or gold backed coins. While the native language of the writter is not english , I think you get the point and it doesn't make it any less relevant.
I am getting tired of repeating myself so here's to hoping I can reach a broader audience assuming this doesn't get downvoted into oblivion. If you read articles like this- https://medium.com/@vijayboyapati/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1 You are fundamentally misunderstanding money. The entire purpose of money is to facilitate trade. It is not desired to be an asset that appreciates in value. If money continued to increase in value over time, people would spend less of it. This would lead to less active markets (higher volatility). Business incomes would decline ( layoffs unemployment goes up) as people decide to spend less because their money will be worth more tomorrow. Consumption goes down, revenues decline, companies go out of business, unemployment goes up and up and we end up in a deflationary spiral that is unstoppable. This eventually leads to a depression, bread lines, nationalization of industry, and war. Yes, War. It is NOT DESIRABLE for money to increase in value. We want people to spend money. Constantly. Keep those markets going. More trade. More trade. Buy bonds, buy stocks, buy fuckin candy bars, whatever, just spend your money. Keep trade going. That is the entire purpose of money - to facilitate fucking trade. This is why we have an inflationary system. To encourage spending money - to encourage trade. Yet here we are. In the HODLverse where everyone thinks that it's a good idea to have money that continually increases in value while they chant "HODL" which is literally what I just described - a massive decline in trade. Bitcoin is a commodity. It is an investment. Like gold, or oil, or muni bonds, or treasuries, or a million other things. Those are the comparisons you should make.
do not get me wrong. I am a big supporter of! Bitcoin Cash! but what is not 100% clear to me is the following: Financial experts cite Bitcoin as a deflationary currency as it controls the total amount of bitcoins in the market due to its limited quantity and cryptographic system. "As a result, companies profit expectations are falling, they are investing less and instead trying to cut costs by, for example, reducing product production (short-time work, site closures, etc.), layoffs and wage cuts Unemployment is rising, incomes are falling, there can be less consumption, demand for consumer goods is shrinking, and state tax revenues are falling, and overall economic output is shrinking. The result is an economic crisis. While prices, profits and wages fall in deflation, the face value of loans and other debt remains unchanged, penalizing debtors as their credit-financed assets lose value in monetary terms, but they remain the same initially set monetary On the other hand, owners of financial assets benefit from deflation, as their capital - adjusted for interest rates - now has a higher value than at the beginning of the period, leading to more insolvency of indebted companies, with negative consequences for their employees and creditors The further consequence may be debt deflation, that is, a financial crisis and ever-worsening deflation through economic austerity, resulting in the deepening of the economic crisis. Consumers purchasing power will increase if wages do not fall more than prices, and if wages remain stable, even though companies can no longer afford to pay wages (wage rigidity), it will lead to corporate bankruptcies." These effects (if they are true?) Could cause serious problems if in the future the Bitcoin system becomes very large or even becomes a world reserve currency. My questions to the community:
Are the described effects true? (partially? whole?)
Are these effects perhaps short-term True but will lead to a healthy society with a healthy economy in the long term after everything has settled down?
Are there any comparable experiments with a deflationary currency?
can bitcoin work in the long run without money supply control?
I'm glad for every input, the thing does not seem to be very clear.
Theoretically, those who argue that bitcoin will go down the deflationary spiral, believe that with the number of bitcoins already fixed, its value over a period of time will be proportional to its demand within the same timeframe. With everyone believing it, they will end up hoarding bitcoin expecting the value to rise in the future. Mass hoarding will take bitcoin out of circulation leading ... Deflationary spiral is an economic argument that proposes that runaway deflation can eventually lead to the collapse of the currency given certain conditions and constraints. It is a common criticism made against the viability of Bitcoin. The ‘deflationary spiral’ is a real condition that affects the popular fractional reserve backing system. Bitcoin is not affected by this because it is ... However, we know that bitcoin is deflationary, i.e. product prices denominated in bitcoin went down by a lot in the past nine and a half years. Knowing this we can say P went down (decreased), the only explanation of which is the Y went up significantly enough to offset the increase in money supply. Another explanation is the V going down significantly (offsetting the change in M) and thus ... Bitcoin’s price has been rising for the past two months and skyrocketing for the past few weeks. As of this writing, prices are fluctuating wildly across multiple exchanges, with some listing a ... Deflationary spiral is an economic argument that proposes that runaway deflation can eventually lead to the collapse of the currency given certain conditions and constraints. It is a common criticism made against the viability of Bitcoin.The ‘deflationary spiral’ is a real condition that affects the popular fractional reserve backing system.
Deflationary Spiral Will be STOPPED by Hyperinflationary Measures by Central Bankers!
Deflationary Spiral Will be STOPPED by Hyperinflationary Measures by Central Bankers! ... QE Infinity Will Ignite Bitcoin, Gold & Silver - Duration: 57:28. Nugget's News 73,548 views. New; 57:28 ... Can cryptocurrencies have an inflationary monetary policy? How do cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin fit into the global currency wars? Initially there wasn't eno... Khan Academy is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization with the mission of providing a free, world-class education for anyone, anywhere. Our interactive practice... (Part -3 )Deflation, Deflationary spiral, Disflation and Reflation. Initially there wasn't enough demand in the economy, but as the reward diminishes over time, bitcoin will have a deflationary monetary policy and simulate a scarce resource like gold. But you can ...